Elevated Transaminases as Predictors of COVID-19 Pneumonia Severity.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to calculate the frequency of elevated liver enzymes in hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection and to test if liver enzyme biochemistry levels on admission could predict the computed tomography (CT) scan severity score of bilateral interstitial pneumonia. METHODS: This single-center study comprised of 323 patients including their demographic data, laboratory analyses, and radiological findings. All the information was taken from electronic health records, followed by statistical analysis. RESULTS: Out of 323 patients, 115 of them (35.60%) had aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and/or alanine aminotransferase (ALT) over 40 U/L on admission. AST was the best predictor of CT scan severity score of bilateral interstitial pneumonia (R2 = 0.313, Adjusted R2 = 0.299). CT scan severity score in the peak of the infection could be predicted with the value of AST, neutrophils, platelets, and monocytes count (R2 = 0.535, Adjusted R2 = 0.495). CONCLUSION: AST, neutrophils, platelets, and monocytes count on admission can account for almost half (49.5%) of the variability in CT scan severity score at peak of the disease, predicting the extensiveness of interstitial pneumonia related to COVID-19 infection. Liver enzymes should be closely monitored in order to stratify COVID-19 patients with a higher risk of developing severe forms of the disease and to plan the beforehand step-up treatment.

Development and Validation of a Multivariable Predictive Model for Mortality of COVID-19 Patients Demanding High Oxygen Flow at Admission to ICU: AIDA Score.

INTRODUCTION: Risk stratification is an important aspect of COVID-19 management, especially in patients admitted to ICU as it can provide more useful consumption of health resources, as well as prioritize critical care services in situations of overwhelming number of patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A multivariable predictive model for mortality was developed using data solely from a derivation cohort of 160 COVID-19 patients with moderate to severe ARDS admitted to ICU. The regression coefficients from the final multivariate model of the derivation study were used to assign points for the risk model, consisted of all significant variables from the multivariate analysis and age as a known risk factor for COVID-19 patient mortality. The newly developed AIDA score was arrived at by assigning 5 points for serum albumin and 1 point for IL-6, D dimer, and age. The score was further validated on a cohort of 304 patients admitted to ICU due to the severe form of COVID-19. RESULTS: The study population included 160 COVID-19 patients admitted to ICU in the derivation and 304 in the validation cohort. The mean patient age was 66.7 years (range, 20-93 years), with 68.1% men and 31.9% women. Most patients (76.8%) had comorbidities with hypertension (67.7%), diabetes (31.7), and coronary artery disease (19.3) as the most frequent. A total of 316 patients (68.3%) were treated with mechanical ventilation. Ninety-six (60.0%) in the derivation cohort and 221 (72.7%) patients in the validation cohort had a lethal outcome. The population was divided into the following risk categories for mortality based on the risk model score: low risk (score 0-1) and at-risk (score > 1). In addition, patients were considered at high risk with a risk score > 2. By applying the risk model to the validation cohort (n = 304), the positive predictive value was 78.8% (95% CI 75.5% to 81.8%); the negative predictive value was 46.6% (95% CI 37.3% to 56.2%); the sensitivity was 82.4% (95% CI 76.7% to 87.1%), and the specificity was 41.0% (95% CI 30.3% to 52.3%). The C statistic was 0.863 (95% CI 0.805-0.921) and 0.665 (95% CI 0.598-0.732) in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively, indicating a high discriminative value of the proposed score. CONCLUSION: In the present study, AIDA score showed a valuable significance in estimating the mortality risk in patients with the severe form of COVID-19 disease at admission to ICU. Further external validation on a larger group of patients is needed to provide more insights into the utility of this score in everyday practice.

Predictors of Mortality in Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients Demanding High Oxygen Flow: A Thin Line between Inflammation, Cytokine Storm, and Coagulopathy.

INTRODUCTION: Mortality among critically ill COVID-19 patients remains relatively high despite different potential therapeutic modalities being introduced recently. The treatment of critically ill patients is a challenging task, without identified credible predictors of mortality. METHODS: We performed an analysis of 160 consecutive patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection admitted to the Respiratory Intensive Care Unit between June 23, 2020, and October 2, 2020, in University Hospital Center Bezanijska kosa, Belgrade, Serbia. Patients on invasive, noninvasive ventilation and high flow oxygen therapy with moderate to severe ARDS, according to the Berlin definition of ARDS, were selected for the study. Demographic data, past medical history, laboratory values, and CT severity score were analyzed to identify predictors of mortality. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to assess potential predictors of mortality in critically ill COVID-19 patients. RESULTS: The mean patient age was 65.6 years (range, 29-92 years), predominantly men, 68.8%. 107 (66.9%) patients were on invasive mechanical ventilation, 31 (19.3%) on noninvasive, and 22 (13.8%) on high flow oxygen therapy machine. The median total number of ICU days was 10 (25th to 75th percentile: 6-18), while the median total number of hospital stay was 18 (25th to 75th percentile: 12-28). The mortality rate was 60% (96/160). Univariate logistic regression analysis confirmed the significance of age, CRP, and lymphocytes at admission to hospital, serum albumin, D-dimer, and IL-6 at admission to ICU, and CT score. Serum albumin, D-dimer, and IL-6 at admission to ICU were independently associated with mortality in the final multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: In the present study of 160 consecutive critically ill COVID-19 patients with moderate to severe ARDS, IL-6, serum albumin, and D-dimer at admission to ICU, accompanied by chest CT severity score, were marked as independent predictors of mortality.